BY TSC
February 24, 2025

The Trump Effect on LATAM: Crises & Opportunities

Why Trump’s Policies Matter for LATAM Business & Politics

The return of Trump-era policies is reshaping Latin America’s economic and political landscape. From tariff turmoil in Mexico & Brazil to critical mineral shifts in Chile and Argentina, businesses operating in the region must prepare for potential disruptions and opportunities.

To help corporate diplomats—public affairs professionals, government relations teams, and risk managers—navigate this uncertain terrain, we’ve developed a heat map within the Genie T2 System* to decipher the high-risk and high-opportunity areas across LATAM.

Download the map here: Link

Here's how to leverage this resource effectively across different use cases.



Understanding the Heat Map 

Before diving into applications, it's important to understand the map's key components:

  • Policy categories (Economic, Social, Political, Technology)
  • Likelihood assessments
  • Impact indicators
  • Country-specific implications
  • Supporting data and reasoning
Preview of the Trumpista Map: Download Here

Key Use Cases and How to Apply Them

1) Risk & Scenario Analysis

The heat map quantifies policy risks, helping businesses anticipate and mitigate threats such as tariffs, regulatory changes, and deportation waves.

Example: Consider a manufacturing company with operations in Mexico. The heat map shows high-likelihood impacts across USMCA enforcement, steel tariffs, and fentanyl-related security measures. By connecting these dots, you can:

  • Anticipate how stricter USMCA rules on Chinese components (40% of Mexico's auto parts) might affect production costs
  • Plan for potential supply disruptions from increased border security measures
  • Develop contingency plans for sourcing if tariffs make current suppliers uneconomical

2) Corporate Strategy & Investment Planning

For those developing corporate strategy, the heat map helps you spot emerging opportunities and risks, enabling better-informed decisions about market entry, expansion, or repositioning.

Example: For energy sector investments in Argentina, the heat map reveals strong policy support for fossil fuel development in Vaca Muerta shale. This helps you:

  • Time market entry to align with policy momentum
  • Identify potential U.S. banking partners as deregulation opens up the $120B sector
  • Factor political alignment risks into investment decisions

3) Government Relations & Stakeholder Engagement

For those managing government relations on the ground, engaging key stakeholders ahead of regulatory changes is crucial to securing or retaining your license to operate.

Example: In Chile's lithium sector, the map shows increasing tension between economic opportunities and environmental concerns. This guides your engagement by:

  • Identifying which government stakeholders to prioritize
  • Determining when to engage based on policy likelihood
  • Shaping your narrative around both economic and sustainability priorities

A snapshot of key players in the LATAM market

4) Reputation & Public Affairs

For those in public affairs, the heat map helps you anticipate sensitive issues and prepare stakeholder communications ahead of policy changes.

Example: For mining operations in Peru, the heat map shows the intersection of labour concerns and Indigenous rights with China's decoupling policies. This enables you to:

  • Develop proactive community engagement strategies
  • Prepare communications for sensitive policy issues
  • Build relationships with key stakeholders before issues escalate

Conclusion: Automating Strategic Foresight with Genie T2

In an era of rapid policy shifts and geopolitical uncertainty, staying informed is absolutely critical. 

The risk assessments, stakeholder mappings, and policy impact analysis outlined in this post can be automated within the TSC system. Instead of manually tracking political shifts, trade disruptions, or regulatory risks, Genie T2* continuously scans global data sources, detects patterns, and generates actionable insights in real-time.

This means you can:
✅ Proactively monitor policy risks without endless research
✅ Automate stakeholder engagement strategies based on shifting influence dynamics
✅ Identify business opportunities before competitors do

Contact us for a briefing on how we can future-proof your LATAM strategy. 

Download the Trumpista Map.


*Genie T2 System is a workspace within TSC system that monitor and map developments related to Trump's policies and their implications on various sectors, stakeholders across the globe.